Love him or hate him, you'll probably notice that George Bush Jnr has got things firmly in his court. War is barely 48 hours away and things look bleak for the sovereignity of Iraq in the coming months and years.
Its not only the outcome that matters here, its also how Bush Jnr has come to bring it about. He's stood up against overwhelming global opinion, he's flipped the finger at the UN, and he's about to put Iraq to the sword in a blitz of bombs and missiles. He's got guts, you have to give him that.
And you know what? He's probably going to get away with it.
Scenario 1: The war goes according to plan. The US kicks butt all the way to Baghdad and strolls right in. As predicted, mass numbers of Iraqi troops refuse to fight and surrender. Saddam is either captured, or he flees into exile, or his own people string him up. War is over. Time elapsed: 30 days. During the cleanup process, a few WMD (Weapons of Mass Destruction) are discovered. Bush is vindicated.
The rebuilding process begins. France, Germany and the rest are forced to eat humble pie for political reasons and because of economic ones, they beg to be allowed to participate in the "rebuilding" (rape of its resources more like it) of Iraq.
Global oil output increases to the estimated 10million barrels a day Iraq is potentially capable of. Oil prices tumble. The West now has a counter to the oil-hegemony of the OIC. Cheaper oil means lower cost of production, means a boost to the US economy, means an end to the domestic economic problems in the US. Bush is a hero for pulling it all off. Cue his re-election as President.
Scenario 2: The war does not go according to plan. Weeks drag on into months. US-led coalition losses begin to stack up. The Iraqi army has proven to be excellent guerrilla fighters (another Vietnam?). Saddam hides in one of his bunkers and laughs his ass off.
The US still has a scapegoat: blame the UN. "You see: this is what happens when we aren't united. Its all YOUR fault that Saddam still has WMD capability. Now get in here and help us finish him off."
Cue the paragraph above on the rebuilding process and its inevitable conclusion.
The only way Bush loses is if Saddam is somehow able to bring the war to American shores. Despite the massive anti-war protests, a large number of Americans don't really care what happens on foreign shores, largely because the realities of war have never touched American soil (unlike France, Germany and, to a lesser extent, Britain). If Saddam does have a WMD, the only way he is going to "win" this war is by setting it off in a major American city.
But, then again, who am i kidding? In wars, no one ever wins.
